Groovenstein

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Everything posted by Groovenstein

  1. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    Now that I think about it, some comparison to Rose would be fun. Jeter's career BA is .318, Rose's is .303. They both started seeing significant playing time in the majors at 22. Jeter is about to be 33, Rose played until age 45. Here are the big numbers to look out for. In his age 34 to 45 seasons, Rose played over 100 games in all but his last, and played less than 150 games in only four of those seasons. So Jeter does have some significant work still left to do in order to surpass Rose's hits total. Let's see if I remember my algebra correctly. (Hey, I'm a lawyer and a musician. Math is far from my strong suit. ) Jeter has 2245 career hits, compared to Rose's 4256. To get to 4257, Jeter needs 2012 more. AVG = H/AB, so assuming Jeter continues at his current clip, the equation is as follows (I'm using the exact number for AVG in Excel which is .317...) .318 = 2012/x .318x = 2012 x = 2012/.318 x = 6334 (rounded up) Then I figured out how many seasons it could take him to get that many AB. I calculated his average AB per season (excluding 1995 when he had only 48 AB and the current season which is not over) which is 612 (rounded down). 6334/612 = 10.35. So approximately, using these numbers, Jeter must finish this season and play until the end of the 2017 season to surpass Rose's hit total. Getting 612 AB over any 10 seasons is amazing, but to do it starting at age 33 would be almost miraculous. That's also assuming no decline in skills. Assuming no decline in skills from age 33 seems a bit silly, so let's assume a decline in skills. Funny thing is, I was going to use a .300 AVG for the rest of Jeter's hypothetical career. Then I decided to use Rose's age 34-45 seasons to help calculate Jeter's hypo AVG (figuring that the lower AVG would require a couple more seasons from Jeter to get to 4257 than the 10.35 at the .318 AVG). Rose's AVG during those seasons was .296. But I shouldn't deduct Jeter that much, because Rose only hit .309 through his age 33 season, to Jeter's .318. So let's give Jeter that .009 to Rose's decline and say that Jeter's AVG over his remaining seasons will be .305. (Not a bad guess on that .300. And btw, this is not exactly the best way to do career projections, but it's a simple way and at least somewhat useful.) That gives 6597 AB to get 2012 more H, which is only 263 more than the original 6334. However, Rose's AB/season from ages 34-45 was only 541. I was using 612 AB/season for Jeter, which seems optimistic for the later baseball years. (Of note, Rose had more AB/season up to age 34 than Jeter has thus far, 630 compared to 612. So we might expect fewer AB/season from Jeter going forward than 541. But I don't feel like doing any more calculations, so let's roll with it.) 6597/541 = 12.19 more seasons assuming a decline in skills and AB. If anyone is as silly as I am and wants to do some more playing with this, let me know and I'll send you the Excel doc. I guess all this helps show that Jeter has been awesome at accumulating hits thus far, and if he does in fact break Rose's hit record (which I'm hoping), it would be one of the greatest accomplishments not only in baseball but in all of sport.
  2. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    And it bodes well for Jeter that he hasn't had much in the way of prolonged injuries. Since hitting the bigs full-time in 1996, he's only missed significant time once (only 119 games played in 2003). I don't know if anything about his playing style makes him susceptible to future injury, but his injury history thus far has been immaculate. I love to see records broken (good ones, anyway*), so I'd love him to see him take down Rose. Provided, of course, that those hits don't come at the expense of my beloved Sox. *That's not a take on the HR record. By a bad record I mean, for example, the record for most serial killings.
  3. Tiger Woods Stat

    If one considers a golfer an athlete, he has already made a case for best athlete of all time. Whatever one considers him, his achievements thus far (and he's only 31!!!) have been simply amazing. According to the biography on his website: - 57 PGA Tour wins since turning pro in 1996; - in 2001, first ever to hold all four major titles at the same time; - career victories leader among active players on the Tour (again, he's 31!); - career money list leader; - in 2000, youngest ever to win all four majors (and only the fifth to ever do it); - youngest Masters champion at about 21.25 years; - won U.S. Open by 15 strokes, breaking a 138-year-old record; - a bajillion other things. Read the bio and your jaw will drop.
  4. Calling digital artists!

    As many of you know, I am in a rock band, Poor Man's Opera. (www.poormansopera.com or www.myspace.com/poormansoperamusic) We are doing a band picture in the near future for use as a press photo to send to clubs where we want gigs, to use on our websites, to give to media for use with articles, to use on posters advertising shows, etc. After thinking about how impressed I was with the slick, modern look of "300", I got the idea that it might be cool to have a band picture with a digital background. There are of course some logistical issues to work out, e.g. appropriate poses, but I think this would be doable. If any of you are, or know someone who is, talented and willing to do this sort of thing, please e-mail me at matt@poormansopera.com, and include in your message a way for me to look at examples of your work. Thanks!
  5. LBJ

    I mean basketball sensation LeBron James. Watch some of the videos on his page. This guy just single-handedly took down one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, taking his (otherwise mediocre at best) team one game away from the NBA Finals for the second straight year. He scored 48 points in the game, including his team's LAST 25 POINTS, starting in the 4th quarter and going through 2 overtimes. Oh yeah, he's only 22 years old. In high school, people were saying he was the next Jordan. He's certainly lived up to that hype, and arguably has exceeded it. The next decade and a half is going to be a lot of fun to watch.
  6. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    I have a few suggestions for improvement.
  7. Anti Dog-Eat-Dog Rule Becoming Law in Maine

    Right after I read this thread, I came across [Maryland] to make contractors pay 'living wage'. Then at the end of the article, they note that "[a]mong the other measures signed Tuesday was a bill in which Maryland apologized for slavery." Let's do a little math here. Slavery was abolished in the U.S. in 1865. That was 142 years ago. The oldest well documented person was 122 years old. If alive today, she would have missed slavery by a generation. So who exactly is left to apologize for the slaves they owned? Oh that's right. White people are responsible for anything done by any other white person ever. I need to go find some good news. Yeesh.
  8. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    Wow, that is impressive! It's tough to choose which is more impressive: that or ARod starting the season with 14 home runs in 18 games. As for Joe D's record, if I see that broken in my lifetime, I will be astounded. In all of baseball history very few have even come close. To this I've had people say, "You could have said the same thing about McGwire, et al, and Maris' home run record." To which I respond that I don't think they're comparable. It is one thing to project that men will get bigger and stronger, and thus able to hit a ball farther. It is another to say that they will hit it better. I can't think of what could change that would make for better contact, nor am I aware of any evidence that there is better contact now than before. If someone has the evidence, fire away!
  9. Logic Games

    [From the other forum with the first line slightly edited so it makes sense as a new thread.] I'd like to bring to your attention a fun and mentally engaging game. It's called "Su Doku." My brother introduced me to this game on my vacation, and it's just marvelous. (The timing was convenient, too, as it's great for plane rides.) You can get information at the game at www.sudoku.com. This quote from that page sums up why I think many of you will also find it entertaining: "You solve the puzzle with reasoning and logic." I recommend purchasing a book of puzzles from whatever book retail outlet you use. If money's a concern for you as it is for me, fear not. Books can be had for under ten dollars, and it's a lot of entertainment hours.
  10. Logic Games

    I have recently discovered kakuro which is something of a hybrid sudoku/crossword. Like sudoku, it's all logic. As of now, I find kakuro much more challenging than sudoku. However it's worth noting that (1) I went right out and bought the toughest kakuro book I could find, and (2) I've done tens of thousands of sudoku puzzles. Anyway, if you like sudoku, you will probably also like kakuro. Enjoy! Share your tips and success stories here!
  11. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    Sorry, I haven't been able to figure out what you mean by this. Perhaps you could rephrase?
  12. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    Oh, my bad. I'll shift my line of questioning then. Does he reside on Valhalla? Does he possess any superhuman traits, such as x-ray vision or the ability to summon flame without flint or tinder?
  13. 300 (2007)

    I finally saw this movie, and I too wish to echo the many positive sentiments expressed here. I wish to emphasize the most important point for me, which is that the movie's portrayal of good philosophy and evil philosophy was more explicit and accurate than most movies I've ever seen. Please note that I am not suggesting that an enormous comprehensive philosophy was presented. Rather, I am suggesting that a great many important philosophical ideas were presented in the correct light. Considering the many bad philosophical ideas being furthered today, that this movie was made and has seen tremendous box office success are refreshing and encouraging signs. Batman Begins, V for Vendetta, and now this? I think the American moviegoer is ready for Atlas Shrugged.
  14. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    Well, the debate's not over , but one need not forget the stats to know that the 96-00 Yankees run saw some incredible performances. You want to sing someone's praises for those years, how about Bernie Williams? He put up offensive numbers in every one of those seasons that Jeter touched only once (1999). Not that offense is everything. I'm just praising Williams' incredible offensive performances during that dynasty.
  15. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    The problem here is that season-saving hits or plays ARE stats, are they not? As I understand our disagreement about Jeter, it is whether he, like Degree, kicks in in the clutch. Okay, seriously though, your point about Jeter is in essence that he makes plays in tough ("season-saving") situations to an exceptional degree, yes? Then this should be reflected numerically. First, we would have to define what you call a "season-saving" hit or play. Then we measure how many opportunities everyone had to make a season-saving play, then we measure how many times each person completed one, then we see how reliable our data is (looking for small sample size problems, etc.), then, assuming the data is reliable, we see how Jeter compares to everyone else. Because someone asked, and because it is highly relevant to this post, I provide a link to a short article discussing "clutch" performances and players, and whether some players possess a greater "clutch" ability than others.
  16. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    Sadly, you are right about the envy element. As a separate point, aren't most of the names on an "overrated" list going to be the better players? Who's going to consider somebody like David DeJesus overrated?
  17. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    You can comment on the Red Sox shortcomings if you wish. They do not change the fact that the 2004 ALCS was arguably the greatest comeback/collapse in the history of sports, and I think you know which team was on which end.
  18. Jeter's Latest Immortal Play

    There's no questioning his offensive prowess as a SS. Here are his OPS ranks among all SS by season since 2000: 2006 - 2nd 2005 - 4th 2004 - 5th 2003 - 2nd 2002 - 4th 2001 - 1st 2000 - 1st His defense, on the other hand, is certainly up for debate. Here are his ZR ranks among all SS by season since 2001: 2006 - 20th 2005 - 16th 2004 - 11th 2003 - 22nd 2002 - 26th 2001 - 23rd Now, I am far from a baseball statistician, and furthermore, to my knowledge, ZR is not as good a defensive metric as OPS is an offensive metric. But he is, at best, somewhat above average, and in some cases, downright bad, by the other defensive metrics I've seen. As for him being "clutch", the studies I have read indicate that the existence of clutch can not be proven. Of course, I would want him on my team, and he is a great player overall. I may be a Sox fan, but I'm not an idiot. Speaking of which, while we're talking about immortal plays, how about going here, scrolling down to April 22, and clicking on "Sox go back-to-back-to-back-to-back"? You know, just in case you missed it.
  19. Stephen's Health

    I have nothing, except, wow.
  20. In case no one yet noticed, we have quite the scientific phenomenon going on here on THE FORUM. Member Ed from OC today celebrates his first birthday! It is simply baffling that someone could learn to eat, walk, speak, write, form abstract thoughts, and post valuable contributions to an Objectivist forum in only a year! Not only that, but Ed's profile indicates that he joined THE FORUM in February of 2005, 13 months before he was even born! I guess the Christians are right. Not only is there life at conception, but apparently four months before it.
  21. As some of you know, my brother, Aaron Stein, is currently stationed in Iraq. His 21st birthday is coming up, and he doesn't get to have a big party or anything. He's not allowed to drink over there, so he doesn't get that 21st birthday beer many of us enjoyed. So my folks decided they wanted to get a bunch of people to send him birthday cards. There's a MetroWest news article about it that you should read. It's really a nice thought by my parents, and I want to help by getting everyone and everyone they know to send Aaron a birthday card. So send Aaron a birthday card in Iraq! And tell everyone you know to do the same! Send it by February 10th so it arrives by his birthday, March 10th. The postage is normal, so don't worry about cost. For just a couple dollar birthday card and a stamp you can brighten my brother's birthday a little. I've set up a MySpace page for this project, whch is at www.myspace.com/happybirthdayaaron. I'll post updates on there on news coverage, etc. Thankfully my brother is still alive, and I don't mean to trivialize the losses of those who have endured much worse than not having beer on their 21st birthday. But my brother and all our soldiers are struggling over there, and hopefully this will be a nice little diversion for him. Send cards to: SPC Aaron Stein HHC, 1-501 FOB Iskan APO AE 09312-0506 Thanks!
  22. Sadly, I haven't heard from Aaron in some time. My parents have spoken with him recently and tell me he is doing well. I know his opportunities for communication are quite limited, so I am not disheartened at not having heard from him. My dad tells me that as of a couple days ago Aaron counted one shoebox full of cards. It contained around 150 cards. Oh, and apparently, there are "several" shoeboxes. Nice job guys!
  23. In Praise of the Hamburger

    Yeah, bleu cheese pretty much rocks on beef. Drat, you're making me hungry.
  24. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17596139/wid/11915773/ This is, sadly, not surprising. But sometimes I just think, "This has to be a joke, right? People can't really be this ridiculous!" Yes, they can. Here's my eighteen seconds of discouragement. [hum de dum] Now back to your regularly scheduled normalcy.
  25. In Praise of the Hamburger

    I forgot to add a word of caution should you decide to try the stuffed bleu cheeseburger. Sometimes the cheesy, fatty interior will spray on that first bite. So put on a scruffy shirt. And don't have company.