Darrell Cody

What did you think of the first Presidential debate?

34 posts in this topic

Phil's understandable fear is analogous to the weatherman who always predicts that it's going to rain: eventually he is right, you just don't know in advance when.

I think a much better analogy is the weatherman paying attention to the satellite photos showing the Cat. 5 hurricane heading his way.

The analogy with the weatherman shouldn't be taken to mean that he is only predicting a drizzle while ignoring known means of making predictions of weather to some degree of accuracy at specified times. But if he had satellite photos showing the path of a specific event at a known velocity he would know a lot more than we do about this mess.

You can't say how it will come about, following what path and how long it will take when, with or without some degree of reprieves for different kinds of people along the way. Depending on what is in power in Washington and state governments, there could be general stagnation for some time -- or more zig-zagging and bobbing up and down while circling the drain in a general downward trend -- or some sudden devastating crisis and consequent 'emergency powers' keeping it in place while making it worse. The problems are also impacting different people in different regions and different segments of the economy non-uniformly and in different ways as this progresses. Some people even continue to do better for a while (leading them to ask "what went right?" until it dawns on them what is happening) while others are being shafted and already struggling.

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While we may have temporary and significant inflation -- buy gold -- and some economic disruption, with default or devaluation, it will be temporary and we will recover. There are so many real productive assets -- plants, materials, machines, skilled people, etc. -- in this country and they will still be there after the worst is over.

But all of those assets - and let's not forget stocks and bonds - are ultimately valued in terms of dollars. The moment a trade is involved, inflated dollars will be involved - including getting loans for capital purchases, paying employees, getting paid, paying loans with non-fixed interest rates, etc. Inflation at a certain level becomes an all-destroyer. The physical stuff may still exist but it will take more than that to avoid the results of the sort of total chaos that ensues when a certain percentage of the country can no longer buy food or gasoline - and along the way, has been liquidating their assets to buy them. So who owns the stuff will also undergo dramatic changes, and not positive ones.

In other words, people are not only being looted but when trade and production are disrupted or stopped through a collapse of a monetary system then having some assets isn't enough. And 'pragmatic statism' imposed for an 'emergency', like in the 1930s, locks in the destruction and makes it worse, preventing a recovery with whatever might otherwise have been possible. Furthermore we are now more vulnerable than the 1930s because of the increased densities of population and dependence on technology -- and foreign enemies with much deadlier weapons. And with better technology in everything from food to medical care and more of a separation from economic self-sufficiency we also have farther to fall. Getting rid of an Obama is only a first step.

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But all of those assets - and let's not forget stocks and bonds - are ultimately valued in terms of dollars. The moment a trade is involved, inflated dollars will be involved - including getting loans for capital purchases, paying employees, getting paid, paying loans with non-fixed interest rates, etc. Inflation at a certain level becomes an all-destroyer. The physical stuff may still exist but it will take more than that to avoid the results of the sort of total chaos that ensues when a certain percentage of the country can no longer buy food or gasoline - and along the way, has been liquidating their assets to buy them. So who owns the stuff will also undergo dramatic changes, and not positive ones.

That's right, but those changes in ownership are predictable and can be planned for. The dollar is definitely doomed, but the economy and the fortunes of wise planners are not. The right thing to do now is to get out of dollars, bonds, and heavily regulated industries such as finance and insurance and into gold and other commodities, real estate, and long-term low-interest fixed-rate debt repayable in dollars such as fixed-rate mortgages.

Sure, gold is good to have, but it's not going to be meaningful on a large scale in America. If a deadly flu epidemic is raging in your midst, a good vaccine is way too late. I think it will have the most utility in terms of being to escape and go to places where the value of gold is understood and where trade in it isn't taxed and restricted (and ultimately confiscated as is likely to happen again.)

If there is danger to one's person or property, moving temporarily or permanently to a safer location and being well-insured and well-armed in the meantime is definitely a good idea.

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I'm afraid that a lot of this approach treating the threat through an investment strategy presupposes normally functioning markets both for investments and basic living but which cannot be counted on. It all depends on how badly things break down and what might trigger an economic and political breakdown in addition to the usual stagnation, decline and inflation.

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Agreed, Betsy. Tangible assets are the best bets for safe and stable investments (relatively speaking). If Romney is elected the dollar is going to go through some adaptation pains in the coming years, but if Obama is re-elected (which I seriously doubt, seeing as he is tanking in polls an popularity) than the dollar is doomed outright.

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In any case, to be more serious, I don't see America surviving much longer, so it actually is a moot point. It has a massive debt that can never be repaid short of hyperinflation of the dollar, which swiftly leads to dictatorship/massive civil unrest/civil war.

While we may have temporary and significant inflation -- buy gold -- and some economic disruption, with default or devaluation, it will be temporary and we will recover. There are so many real productive assets -- plants, materials, machines, skilled people, etc. -- in this country and they will still be there after the worst is over.

I agree. Might add incredible private wealth. And productiveness in America. "Going Galt"? America is not that far gone, or going yet....

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In any case, to be more serious, I don't see America surviving much longer, so it actually is a moot point. It has a massive debt that can never be repaid short of hyperinflation of the dollar, which swiftly leads to dictatorship/massive civil unrest/civil war.

While we may have temporary and significant inflation -- buy gold -- and some economic disruption, with default or devaluation, it will be temporary and we will recover. There are so many real productive assets -- plants, materials, machines, skilled people, etc. -- in this country and they will still be there after the worst is over.

I agree. Might add incredible private wealth. And productiveness in America. "Going Galt"? America is not that far gone, or going yet....

True. No one should be 'going Galt'. Now, we fight. Work with your local Tea Party or act on your own, but protect individual rights!

You can find your local tea party here: http://www.teapartypatriots.org/local/

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