Economist predicts recession in Q1 2007

[tommyedison 0]

U.S. Hard Landing And Recession Steaming Ahead

Are the fears expressed in this blog overblown?

[Capitalism Forever 0]

Inflationary pressures will fizzles away as the slowdown and recession will reduce commodity and oil prices

This guy needs to pay more attention to Richard Salsman. (But then, so do most modern economists...)

Does he provide the reasoning behind his predictions? On the page you linked, he just asserts them as if he had received them through divine inspiration.

[Tom Rexton 0]

U.S. Hard Landing And Recession Steaming Ahead

Are the fears expressed in this blog overblown?

I believe Richard Salsman himself forecasts a recession for next year (I read he said so in some TV show appearance but I can't remember the exact source). If you read the three relevant topics in his thread:

Inversion of the Yield Curve

The Business Cycle

The Fed, interest rates, and inflation

You'll see that all the indications are there for a recession, according to Mr. Salsman. The Yield Curve has recently inverted. The Fed has pursued an inflationary monetary policy and recently raised interest rates to punitive heights. Not surprisingly, economic growth has by all measures slowed down more significantly than expected.

That blogger, however, is predicting a far worse recession. The blogger is predicting a banking crisis, a monetery crisis, a capital flight, house price collapse, etc.

[piz 0]

"If the nation's economists were lined up end to end they would point in all directions." - Arthur M. Motley

[Peter Brown 0]

I think the markets really knows how to consolidate out all the bad news rather than plummet nowadays.

Fair assessment? Aren't we already in a 'sideways' market known for its choppy trading sessions?

[Burgess Laughlin 0]

I think the markets really knows how to consolidate out all the bad news rather than plummet nowadays.

What has changed from the past that now would cause the markets "to consolidate out" bad news?

[Nicolaus Nemeth 0]

Doesn't Salsman predict something better? I believe he says that the Fed has hobbled another Bull market. I believe that the stock market (currently doing well) will continue to do so as long as the Fed doesn't change interest rates or decreases them. That keeps inflation under control as one can see via the drop in prices in the commodities markets.

[Gweg 0]

The annualized GDP growth for the third quarter was 1.6% compared to 2.6 in the 2nd quarter and 5.6 in the first. In a bloomberg article,which can be found here: http://agonist.org/ian_welsh/20061030/bloo...headline_number

,said that "The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News earlier this month was for fourth-quarter growth of 2.5 percent." This guy warning of a recession predicts 0 percent for the fourth quarter. I'm not saying he's necessarilly wrong but i would bet that it will be closer to 2.5 than to 0.