Oakes

Rudy on Hannity & Colmes

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http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?en...and_Colmes&only

Link includes YouTube videos of the entire interview from last night.

I was pretty much apathetic about '08 until I saw this. I always knew Rudy Giuliani was the best possible mixture (fiscal and military conservative, social moderate), but this interview proves two things:

1. He's not scripted.

One LGF commenter put it best...

That's damn impressive. The thing I like about him most is what I liked about Dubbya; he's not afraid to be unpopular. He talks comfortably about real issues without canned vague non-answers. Like him or not, I think we can all argee, he's a stand up guy.

2. He can win the GOP primaries.

His comments in the beginning about abortion, marriage, gun control, and jurisprudence were seen as "good enough" by many conservatives. This was probably helped by the giant reality check they suffered last November.

Also, the ever-insightful Dick Morris was interviewed a little later on the show. He was extremely enthusiastic about Rudy. He said that this was the week he pulled ahead from the pack and established a clear lead.

When Morris asked a room full of prominent conservatives whether McCain could overcome his opposition to Bush's tax cuts, campaign finance reform, and weak border policy, 3/4 of the room said no. Upon asking the same group whether Rudy could overcome his stance on abortion and gun control, 3/4 said yes.

And then there's this...

Giuliani rejects $10 million from Saudi prince

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Mayor Rudy Giuliani said Thursday the city would not accept a $10 million donation for disaster relief from Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal after the prince suggested U.S. policies in the Middle East contributed to the September 11 attacks.

When Rudy Booted Arafat

[...] When Rudy Giuliani spotted Yasser Arafat and his entourage making their way to a private box seat near the stage that evening, the mayor immediately ordered the Palestinian leader off the premises.

[...]

Two days after the concert an unrepentant Giuliani said, "I would not invite Yasser Arafat to anything, anywhere, anytime, anyplace. I don’t forget."

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Giuliani has done some things in the past I disapprove of (his unjust assault on Michael Milken comes to mind), and he holds some political views with which I strongly disagree (such as his position on gun control). Nevertheless, he's far and away my current favorite out of the crop of Republican hopefuls for 2008. He's pro-choice, he's secular, he's got demonstrated executive and leadership skills, he understands the gravity of the war with Islamic totalitarianism, and he's willing to buck multiculturalism in its pursuit. The incidents you cite with Bandar and Arafat demonstrate more moral self-confidence when dealing with Islamic thugs than Bush has demonstrated in his entire term of office to date.

Also, from a purely political "pop the popcorn and watch the show" perspective, it would be entertaining watching the Democrats try to paint him with the 'religious right' brush when it's so obvious that he isn't one of them. Giuliani getting the GOP nomination would serve as an automatic refutation of the Democratic meme that all Republicans are Christian religious nuts.

He's a long way from perfect, but he's leagues beyond Romney and (spit) McCain. Definitely the best thing on offer to date. It's early days, of course, but so far I like what I'm hearing.

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Giuliani has done some things in the past I disapprove of (his unjust assault on Michael Milken comes to mind), and he holds some political views with which I strongly disagree (such as his position on gun control).

The gun-control issue is the biggest thing I see which may cause his problems. The country is even more pro-second amendment since 9/11.

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The gun-control issue is the biggest thing I see which may cause his problems. The country is even more pro-second amendment since 9/11.
As you can see from the H&C interview, he said he would leave it up to the states to create gun laws. I don't think it will be a problem.

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People are still betting for McCain as the nominee so far.

Sadly, I do think that's the way to bet. The Republican party is usually very hierarchy-oriented in its presidential nominations, giving the nod to whoever came in second the previous time around. (George W. Bush is an exception to this general rule, but it holds true for just about every other open nomination race in the last several decades.) As the second-place finisher in the 2000 primaries, it's McCain's 'turn', and that gives him an advantage.

His disadvantage is that he has royally pissed off a lot of the party activist base with his opposition to the Bush tax cuts, his antics on judicial nominations, and especially his assault on political freedom of speech. I think he can be stopped, but it will take work.

Romney (who was asked about in a different thread) seems to be trying to position himself as the ideologically conservative candidate, hoping that McCain and Giuliani will split the centrist vote. Romney's problem in that regard is that he has a background of surviving in Massachusetts politics, which isn't a healthy environment for ideological conservatives, so he has a tough sell. He's also relatively unknown on the national stage, which is both a problem and an advantage, since it means he still has a chance to define his national image. He's also photogenic and articulate. I find him a bit too synthetic, personally -- I get the sense that his positions flow from what he thinks will poll well rather than what he thinks is right. But, as I said before, it's early days and I'm still watching what the candidates say.

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What sort of track record does Intrade have? I think it was in last year's Oscar race that a similar type trading group claimed great past predictions, and then they missed some of the most important categories that year.

Not sure. I certainly don't mean for people to use it as a prediction engine. What it is useful for is to evaluate what people think, without having to rely on the (potentially distorted) view that the general media give. So for example, in the current case, despite the recent buzz around Giuliani, people still think that McCain is in the lead. Admitedly, this is nothing more than the "market view". On the other hand, those contracts are actually paid for with hard earn money, so there's more thinking & analysis that goes into this than your average survey.

Admitedly, the volume so far ahead of the primaries and elections is too low to reflect true market efficiencies. But it's still fun to take a look at.

If you recall, DARPA was at one time envisionning something like that to help evaluate the risk of terror attacks on the US. It was torpedoed by Congress, which decided that it was unconscionable to allow people to bet on this kind of thing, even if it might help us more accurately assess threats.

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