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Carlos

Fascinating Monthly Mortality Rates

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While doing research for a personal project I stumbled onto some very interesting graphs depicting monthly mortality rates for different countries.

Netherlands: http://www.cbs.nl/en-GB/menu/themas/bevolk....htm?WBCMODE=Pr

Republic of Moldova: http://www.mdi.gov.md/statistica_gugs_en_2006/

(you have to scroll down, here is the image directly http://www.mdi.gov.md/data/1676/017_en.png )

America: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/22/9500...nths-each-year/

A significant part of this could be seasonal Influenza epidemics: http://www.plospathogens.org/article/info:...al.ppat.0030151

Using the guinea pig as a model host, we show that aerosol spread of influenza virus is dependent upon both ambient relative humidity and temperature. Twenty experiments performed at relative humidities from 20% to 80% and 5 °C, 20 °C, or 30 °C indicated that both cold and dry conditions favor transmission.

What's very interesting is that the virus would not spread between the animals above temperatures of 30 degrees Celcius!

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Here are some amazing mortality statistics from Scotland showing the deadly nature of winter:

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/statistics/...ter-deaths.html

If you don't want to dig through it here are the must-see graphs:

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/images/op7chart1.jpg

http://www.gro-scotland.gov.uk/images/op7chart3.jpg

The last one is particularly dramatic, with peaks occurring every winter around new year's.

Consider this: when global warming (the real kind) happened in the past on Earth, the majority of the warming occurred in higher latitudes, and the least occurred around the equator. This means that if global warming were happening now, we could expect the most warming in the coldest regions, and the least warming in the coldest places. Imagine the kind of relief that would give people in the winter, especially the elderly!

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This link will take you to a National Center for Health Statistics raw data source where you can download very large files with 100's of pages listing the monthly death rate for all sorts of different viruses, intestinal diseases, bacterial infections, etc.

Nearly all of the death rates follow one of two trends: they either happen at a roughly even rate throughout the year, or they occur in greatest amounts during the peak of winter and to the least amount at the peak of summer.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpu...s/gmwkIV_10.htm

I can only imagine the rampant disease that would occur in a climate of global cooling... here's hoping we never have to experience for ourselves :D

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This link will take you to a National Center for Health Statistics raw data source where you can download very large files with 100's of pages listing the monthly death rate for all sorts of different viruses, intestinal diseases, bacterial infections, etc.

Nearly all of the death rates follow one of two trends: they either happen at a roughly even rate throughout the year, or they occur in greatest amounts during the peak of winter and to the least amount at the peak of summer.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpu...s/gmwkIV_10.htm

I can only imagine the rampant disease that would occur in a climate of global cooling... here's hoping we never have to experience for ourselves :D

I scrolled through literally 300 pages of figures and the same trends still held true.

Strangely, more people would die in the winter than in the summer for reasons listed as "pancreas", or "malignant neoplasm of rectum" or "malignant neoplasm of prostate". I could expect more people to die of viruses and bacterial infections in the winter, but why would more people die in the winter from organ failure or cancer?

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Strangely, more people would die in the winter than in the summer for reasons listed as "pancreas", or "malignant neoplasm of rectum" or "malignant neoplasm of prostate". I could expect more people to die of viruses and bacterial infections in the winter, but why would more people die in the winter from organ failure or cancer?

That is pretty interesting. Do we have a doctor in the house?

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Strangely, more people would die in the winter than in the summer for reasons listed as "pancreas", or "malignant neoplasm of rectum" or "malignant neoplasm of prostate". I could expect more people to die of viruses and bacterial infections in the winter, but why would more people die in the winter from organ failure or cancer?

That is pretty interesting. Do we have a doctor in the house?

For the record, I'm not trying to make the claim that cold weather is responsible for all of the elevated mortality rates associated with these viruses, bacterial infections, etc.

However, in recognition of all these figures I've found, anyone arguing the case that a warmer climate will bring more disease and death has a serious uphill battle to make. If the total monthly mortality rate is higher in the winter in virtually all northern hemisphere countries, and if the monthly rate of death from most diseases is higher in the winter for these countries, how on earth can one sensibly argue that warmer temperatures bring death?

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